Daily Analysis 14/04/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD continues its upward move, reaching near 1.3515 in European trading. The rally reflects improving risk sentiment and some USD softness.
• Geopolitical developments: A report by The New York Times suggests Iran was open to a temporary halt in uranium enrichment. While negotiations remain complex, this signals potential de-escalation, reducing safe-haven demand for the USD.
• Inflation risks: Expectations for UK inflation to climb toward 3%–3.5% highlight growing pressure from energy costs. This could push the Bank of England toward tighter policy, offering some support to the Pound.
• EU-UK: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the importance of stronger economic and security alignment with the EU. Improved relations could support long-term economic stability and investor confidence.
• Fed speakers: Markets will monitor remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee and Thomas Barkin. Their tone on inflation and rates could influence USD direction.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported by improving risk sentiment and UK inflation expectations, though Fed commentary and geopolitical developments will be key in determining whether the rally can extend further.

• XAU/USD Price: The XAU/USD is building on its rebound from sub-$4,650 levels, gaining further upside traction. This suggests renewed buying interest as the metal recovers from recent lows.
• China trade: China’s export growth slowed sharply while imports surged well above expectations. This mixed picture points to uneven global demand, which can support gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Housing data: US existing home sales dropped to a nine-month low, signaling softness in the housing market. However, markets largely ignored the data, remaining focused on geopolitical developments.
• Fed's Daly: Mary Daly indicated that holding rates is more likely than hiking, unless inflation proves persistent. This relatively dovish tilt reduces pressure on gold.
• Rate expectations: The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows a growing probability of a rate cut by year-end. Lower rate expectations weaken the USD and support non-yielding assets like gold.

Closing statement: Gold is gaining traction as softer rate expectations and global uncertainty offset mixed economic data, with further upside dependent on Fed policy signals and geopolitical developments.

• Crude Oil Price: The WTI crude oil is trading around $92.60, stabilizing after recent volatility. Prices remain supported by geopolitical tensions but lack strong directional momentum.
• Naval blockade: Donald Trump confirmed the start of a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of military action. This significantly raises geopolitical risk and supports oil prices through supply concerns.
• Shipping activity: Despite the blockade, a Chinese tanker under sanctions successfully passed through the Strait, according to reports citing Kpler and MarineTraffic data. This suggests that flows are disrupted but not fully halted.
• Diplomatic efforts: According to CNN, US officials are considering another round of talks with Iran before the ceasefire deadline. Any progress on diplomacy could ease supply fears and weigh on prices.
• Iran reports: Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said that oil sales have remained “favorable” since the conflict began. Continued exports indicate resilience in supply, partially offsetting bullish pressures.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported by escalating geopolitical risks, though ongoing oil flows and potential diplomatic talks are preventing a sharper rally.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading around 23,950 points, maintaining momentum after a 2%+ surge in the previous session. This suggests resilient investor sentiment despite macro uncertainties.
• VW legal issues: Volkswagen faces renewed legal scrutiny as another fraud trial linked to the diesel scandal from over 10 years ago begins. Ongoing legal risks continue to weigh on the company’s long-term outlook.
• Continental outlook: British investment bank Barclays has raised its price target for Continental from 70 to 72 euros and upgraded the stock from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight".
• Mercedes outlook: RBC Capital Markets has reiterated its "Sector Perform" rating on Mercedes-Benz with a price target of 56 euros following a conference call with analysts.
• Growth outlook: Deutsche Bank economists said Germany’s recovery is being delayed by higher energy costs and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. They lowered their 2026 growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.5%, while keeping the 2027 forecast at 1.5%.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains supported by recent momentum and selective upgrades, but legal risks and a weaker macro outlook may cap further gains.