Daily Analysis 18/02/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD holds above the 1.3550 level during Wednesday’s European morning session, supported by the latest UK inflation figures and a lack of fresh selling pressure.
• UK inflation: The Office for National Statistics reported that headline CPI eased to 3.0% YoY in January, down from 3.4% in December and in line with market expectations, reinforcing the narrative that inflation pressures are gradually moderating.
• Geopolitics focus: Nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington resumed on Tuesday, and while no deal was reached, progress was made, according to Axios, citing a White House official. The absence of a breakdown helped keep broader risk sentiment steady.
• Labor data: The Automatic Data Processing reported an improvement in the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, rising to 10.3K from a revised 7.8K, hinting at continued underlying resilience in the US labor market.
• Fed tone: Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, noted progress on inflation but warned that persistently high inflation would imply policy remains too loose, adding that he views 3% as a loose neutral rate.

Closing statement: GBP/USD finds near-term support from easing UK inflation, but upside momentum remains capped by firm US labor signals and cautious Fed rhetoric. With inflation now behaving as expected, attention may shift back to BoE policy expectations and global risk sentiment, leaving the pair prone to range-bound trading unless fresh catalysts emerge.

• XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD snaps a two-day losing streak and regains positive momentum, with the recovery gathering traction toward the $5,000 mark during Wednesday’s European session.
• Middle East: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has reached an understanding with the US on the main “guiding principles” to resolve the nuclear dispute, though officials cautioned that substantial work remains, limiting any decisive shift in risk sentiment.
• US data: The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index eased modestly in February but beat expectations, reinforcing the view that US economic momentum remains intact despite pockets of softness.
• Fed rhetoric: Mary Daly said inflation remains above target, while Michael Barr noted that neutral rates have edged higher and stressed that the Federal Reserve can afford to be patient on policy decisions.
• FOMC Minutes: Traders are positioning ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes later on Wednesday, searching for clearer signals on the timing and scope of future rate cuts.

Closing statement: Gold’s rebound reflects stabilizing geopolitics and short-term USD consolidation, but upside may stay measured unless the FOMC Minutes strike a decisively dovish tone. With Fed officials signaling patience and inflation still a concern, XAU/USD could remain range-bound near key psychological levels in the near term.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (West Texas Intermediate) trades around $62.30 during Wednesday’s European session, struggling to build momentum amid lingering supply and geopolitical crosscurrents.
• Sanctions enforcement: France has fined a Russia-linked oil tanker after detaining it for violating EU sanctions, one of the clearest physical enforcement actions yet against Moscow’s shadow fleet. The tanker Grinch was boarded in the Mediterranean after sailing from Murmansk and held at Fos-sur-Mer for three weeks, according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot.
• Russian flows: Despite sanctions pressure, Russian crude exports continue, with China’s imports from Russia on track to hit an all-time high above 2 million bpd in February. In contrast, India’s purchases are declining, highlighting a shift in trade routes rather than a loss of supply.
• Energy infrastructure: In the second half of 2025, Ukraine intensified attacks on Russia’s refineries, depots, and export terminals, while Russia stepped up strikes on Ukraine’s gas production and power networks—keeping energy security risks elevated as winter demand lingers.
• Peace talks: Ukraine and Russia continue negotiations, but expectations for a breakthrough remain low. Disputes over territory in Donetsk remain unresolved, limiting any near-term geopolitical risk premium adjustment ahead of the invasion’s fourth anniversary.

Closing statement: WTI remains range-bound, with downside pressure from resilient Russian supply and rerouted exports offset by persistent geopolitical risks tied to sanctions enforcement and attacks on energy infrastructure. Unless peace talks yield unexpected progress or supply disruptions escalate materially, crude prices are likely to hover near current levels with a cautious bearish bias.

• DAX Price: Germany’s DAX gained around 0.45%, trading near 25,135 points on Wednesday morning, extending its rebound after recent choppy sessions.
• ZEW sentiment: The February ZEW survey showed institutional investor sentiment easing to 58.3 from 59.6, pointing to a mild deterioration in confidence despite still-elevated optimism levels.
• Infineon news: The CEO of Infineon Technologies told Handelsblatt that the company is well positioned to benefit from a future surge in demand for microchips used in humanoid robots, underlining longer-term growth opportunities in automation and AI-related hardware.
• Volkswagen interest: Volkswagen has reportedly received bids for its Everllence unit from private equity heavyweights including Blackstone, EQT, and CVC, according to the Financial Times, highlighting ongoing portfolio optimization and investor appetite for industrial assets.
• PMIs focus: Attention now turns to preliminary PMI readings for Germany and the Eurozone on Friday, which will be closely watched for confirmation of stabilization, or renewed weakness, in manufacturing and services activity.

Closing statement: The DAX is holding firm near record highs, supported by stock-specific catalysts and resilient risk sentiment, even as leading indicators like ZEW soften slightly. Short term, PMI data will be key in determining whether the index can sustain gains above the 25,000 level or slips back into consolidation.