Daily Analysis 19/02/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD is stabilising after three consecutive days of losses, trading in a tight range near a four-week low set during Thursday’s Asian session.
• Technical signals: Cable has slipped below its 50-day moving average (50-DMA) and under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November–January rally. This breakdown suggests the pair has entered a bearish consolidation phase, leaving room for further downside.
• BoE outlook: The latest UK inflation data presents a mixed picture for the Bank of England, but it is unlikely to materially alter expectations for policy easing. Markets still largely price rate cuts in March and June.
• Fed minutes: In the US, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee January meeting, where rates were held at 3.50%–3.75%, showed policymakers broadly expect inflation to keep easing toward the 2% target, supporting a cautious, data-dependent stance.
• US data: Traders now turn their attention to Thursday’s US releases, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Pending Home Sales, all of which could influence near-term USD direction.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains technically fragile after breaking key support levels. While consolidation may persist in the short term, the broader bias stays tilted to the downside, especially if upcoming US data surprises to the upside or if expectations for BoE rate cuts firm further.

• XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD continues to move sideways through the European session on Thursday, holding slightly above the $5,000 psychological level as traders remain cautious amid mixed macro signals.
• Fed minutes: The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve carried a hawkish twist, with several participants noting that rate hikes could still be required if inflation fails to return sustainably to target. This caps upside momentum in gold.
• Rate path: Despite the hawkish language, markets still expect the Fed to hold rates steady in March, followed by rate cuts in June and September, keeping longer-term support intact for non-yielding assets like gold.
• China policy: The International Monetary Fund urged China to cut industrial subsidies, currently around 4% of GDP, warning that its export-driven growth model is distorting global trade. Persistent global trade tensions tend to underpin safe-haven demand.
• Tech capex: On the corporate side, Meta announced plans to deploy millions of AI processors over coming years, a commitment worth tens of billions of dollars. Shares of Nvidia rose more than 1.5%, though gains stalled near the $190 level, reflecting some caution around lofty valuations.

Closing statement: Gold remains stuck in consolidation above $5,000, supported by medium-term rate cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainty, but near-term upside is capped by hawkish Fed rhetoric and firm risk appetite. A clear break will likely require either softer US inflation data or a renewed spike in global risk aversion.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $65.70 per barrel during the European session on Thursday, building on strong gains from the previous session as oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risk.
• Diplomacy talks: The third round of US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva ended without a breakthrough, underscoring enduring disagreements over territory and prolonging uncertainty in energy markets.
• Middle East risk: Oil prices have remained supported by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with military buildup and strategic positioning around the Strait of Hormuz keeping a risk premium in crude pricing. Markets continue to weigh the possibility of US military action, even though no final decision has been made, maintaining oil’s sensitivity to news flow.
• Venezuelan crude: US refiners Phillips 66 and Citgo Petroleum are reportedly planning to purchase heavy crude directly from Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA as early as April, bypassing intermediaries to improve margins, a development that reflects shifting trade dynamics in global crude supply.
• India diversification: India’s state-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited made its first-ever purchase of Venezuelan crude, while HPCL Mittal Energy also bought cargoes from Venezuela for the first time in two years, indicating growing Asian demand for discounted barrels despite sanctions and broader market volatility.

Closing statement: WTI is navigating a volatile mix of geopolitical risk and supply-chain shifts. Near-term support remains elevated due to US-Iran tensions and stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations, but prices are likely to remain sensitive to diplomatic developments, inventory data, and global demand cues. Unless geopolitical headlines escalate sharply, crude may trade within a broad consolidative range around the mid-$60s, with breakouts tied to conflict risk or major supply disruptions.

• DAX Price: Germany’s DAX trades slightly lower in the European morning, hovering around 25,200 points, as investors digest mixed macro and corporate signals.
• ZEW survey: After a strong rise at the start of the year, economic expectations for Germany stabilized at 58.3 in February. Meanwhile, the assessment of the current situation continued to improve, with the situation index rising 6.8 points m/m to -65.9, indicating gradual healing from deeply negative levels.
• US data: Stronger-than-expected US Industrial Production and the biggest increase in manufacturing output in 11 months reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for longer, limiting upside momentum for equities sensitive to global rates.
• Airbus results: The aerospace and defense group reported 2025 net profit of €5.22bn, up from €4.23bn a year earlier, with EPS rising 23.3% to €6.61, providing firm support to the industrial sector.
• SAP dividend: SAP proposed a €2.50 per share dividend, underlining confidence in cash flows and offering additional support to the index’s heavyweight technology component.

Closing statement: The DAX remains range-bound near record levels, supported by solid corporate earnings and improving domestic sentiment, but capped by sticky global rate expectations. Near-term direction is likely to depend on further macro data and confirmation that Germany’s cyclical recovery continues to gain traction.