EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair is trading in negative territory around 1.1230 during the early European session on Monday.
- European protests: France has experienced widespread demonstrations, alongside protests in Belgium, Italy and Portugal, as young people voice dissatisfaction with the state of education and the rising cost of living, according to The Guardian.
- EU-US differences: European Union leaders meeting in Brussels pledged to maintain sanctions against Russia and continue supporting Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that sanctions would not be lifted unless Russia ends the war, while the EU is preparing a 22nd sanctions package, highlighting persistent geopolitical divisions with Washington.
- Transatlantic tensions: Relations between the EU and the US also remain strained over proposed changes to satellite frequency allocation rules.
- ECB’s Elderson: European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson is scheduled to speak later on Monday, with investors likely to monitor his comments for signals on the monetary policy outlook.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure around 1.1230 as French fiscal concerns, political unrest and escalating EU-US tensions weigh on sentiment toward the euro. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty could keep the pair vulnerable to further downside, while comments from ECB official Frank Elderson may provide support if they reinforce expectations for a less accommodative policy stance. The near-term direction will depend on the balance between political risks and signals about the ECB’s monetary policy outlook.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is trading relatively flat around 1.3320 during the early European session on Monday.
- Import prices: US import prices increased by 1.1% month-on-month in September, exceeding the 0.8% forecast and accelerating from the previous reading of 0.5%, while annual growth reached 8.1%.
- Fed's Warsh: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh expressed optimism about the strength of the US economy but provided no clear guidance on the future path of interest rates.
- Bloomberg analyst: Bloomberg Economics chief UK economist Dan Hanson said the firm expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in November, followed by another increase in February.
- Data ahead: Investors will focus on UK labour market data due Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report on Wednesday.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |  |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is holding near 1.3320 as stronger-than-expected US import prices sustain inflation concerns, while Kevin Warsh’s comments offer little clarity on the Fed’s next moves. Expectations for further Bank of England rate hikes could support sterling, but the pair’s near-term direction will likely depend on Tuesday’s UK jobs report and Wednesday’s inflation data. Strong UK figures may provide upward momentum, whereas weaker readings could increase downside pressure.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD is posting modest intraday gains during Monday’s Asian session but remains within its familiar trading range below $4,200.
- Fed’s Goolsbee: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings as “discouraging.”
- Fed rate: The CME FedWatch Tool showed an 83.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, up from 49% a month earlier.
- China’s growth: China’s GDP growth accelerated from 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter to 4.5% in the third quarter, slightly exceeding the 4.4% consensus forecast. However, September’s mixed economic data continued to indicate weak domestic demand despite surging exports, raising questions about the strength of the Chinese recovery and its implications for gold demand.
- Iran’s retaliation: Mohsen Rezaei, a secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that Tehran had prepared a new retaliation plan in the event of another US-Israeli attack.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Gold remains below $4,200 with modest gains, as expectations for the Fed to hold interest rates and escalating tensions involving Iran provide potential support. However, persistent US inflation pressures and uncertainty surrounding China’s domestic demand may limit bullish momentum. A further deterioration in the geopolitical situation or a shift toward a less restrictive Fed outlook could help gold break higher, while renewed inflation concerns could keep prices range-bound.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, starts the new week on a weaker note after retreating from Friday’s strong rally toward $98.50, its highest level in a month.
- Russia policy: President Donald Trump’s decision to waive key sanctions and tariffs on Russia could potentially allow Russian fuel exports to increase.
- Ukrainian attacks: Ukrainian attacks sparked fires at an oil export terminal and a storage depot in St. Petersburg on Sunday, as Kyiv launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia in one of the war’s largest aerial assaults.
- Strait of Hormuz: Three tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy maintained that the waterway remained closed and vessels could pass only with its authorization.
- Houthi attacks: Clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen have shown little sign of abating.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: WTI has retreated from its one-month high near $98.50, but the outlook remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Potentially higher Russian fuel exports could ease supply concerns and weigh on prices, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and continued Saudi-Houthi clashes could provide further support. The near-term direction will depend on whether the prospect of increased supply outweighs the risks of further disruptions to global oil flows.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading higher at around 25,445 points on Monday morning. Despite the gains, investor sentiment remains exposed to political instability in Europe, persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine.
- Escalating protests: Pressure on the French government intensified after weekend protests over the cost of living and public services escalated into some of the country’s worst unrest in years. Reuters reported more than 2,000 arrests, over 600 injured police officers and firefighters, and widespread damage to shops and public buildings, adding to concerns about France’s political and economic stability.
- Eurozone inflation: The final September inflation figures confirmed the preliminary estimates, with headline inflation at 3.8% year-on-year and core inflation at 2.5%.
- ECB’s Rehn: European Central Bank policymaker Olli Rehn said there were no signs of second-round inflation effects but stressed that policymakers would remain vigilant because such pressures could emerge gradually.
- Geopolitical summit: According to The Wall Street Journal, Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering a summit with US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss Ukraine’s future.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX 40 is trading higher around 25,445 points, but the outlook remains clouded by unrest in France, elevated eurozone inflation and uncertainty over the war in Ukraine. Persistent inflation could limit expectations for monetary easing, while worsening political instability may weigh on risk appetite. Conversely, progress toward a diplomatic resolution in Ukraine could support European equities, leaving the index sensitive to developments on both the economic and geopolitical fronts.