Daily Analysis 23/12/2025

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD pushed higher on Monday, starting a holiday-shortened week on the front foot as renewed US Dollar weakness lifted the pair to its highest levels in ten weeks.
• BoE Framework: The Bank of England’s shift toward emphasizing “alternative scenarios” rather than a single baseline forecast complicates policy guidance and adds uncertainty for rate expectations.
• MPC Transparency: All nine MPC members will now disclose their individual rate outlooks and policy preferences on a meeting-by-meeting basis, increasing scrutiny of internal BoE dynamics.
• Rate Bets: Money markets expect at least one BoE rate cut in the first half of the year and are pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a second cut before year-end, according to Reuters.
• US Growth: US Q3 annualized GDP is forecast to slow to 3.2% from 3.8%, contrasting with Trump administration claims that growth could accelerate toward 4–5% later in the year.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported by softer USD dynamics, though upside momentum may hinge on US growth data and evolving BoE communication.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold builds on Monday’s sharp rally of more than 2% and extends gains for a second straight session on Tuesday, printing fresh all-time highs.
• Safe-Haven Demand: The metal is up around 10% over the past month and nearly 70% in 2025, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty that continue to drive safe-haven inflows.
• Fed Developments: Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he is likely to remain on the Board of Governors beyond the end of his term until President Donald Trump’s nominee for Fed Chair is confirmed by the Senate, reinforcing near-term policy continuity.
• Rate Expectations: Markets assign only a 20% probability of a Fed rate cut at the January meeting, following three consecutive quarter-point reductions, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
• Ukraine News: Russia has intensified strikes on Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, triggering widespread power outages and raising risks to critical maritime infrastructure, further supporting Gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains firmly bid amid geopolitical escalation and limited expectations for near-term Fed easing, with momentum favoring further upside despite increasingly stretched conditions.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $57.80 per barrel during early European hours on Tuesday, consolidating near recent highs as markets assess supply-side developments.
• Venezuela News: US President Donald Trump said the United States may keep or sell oil seized off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks and will retain the seized vessels, according to Reuters, adding uncertainty around Venezuelan crude flows.
• Geopolitical Risks: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that repeated Russian attacks are aimed at blocking Ukraine’s access to maritime logistics, keeping geopolitical risk premia embedded in energy markets.
• Supply Developments: Shell and INEOS Energy confirmed a new oil discovery at a deepwater exploration well in the US Gulf of Mexico, tapping the high-pressure Norphlet formation and adding longer-term supply considerations.
• Data Watch: Traders look ahead to the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report later on Tuesday for fresh direction on near-term supply-demand balances.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty but faces offsetting pressure from potential future supply additions, with near-term direction likely driven by inventory data and headlines.

• DAX Price: DAX 40 trades near 24,300 points, extending a strong rebound from support just below the 24,000 mark and maintaining a constructive near-term technical tone.
• Trade Data: Germany’s import prices rose 0.5% m/m in November, beating expectations of +0.2%, while the annual rate fell 1.9% y/y, marking the sharpest year-on-year decline since March last year, according to Destatis.
• Fiscal Developments: German federal and state government tax revenues declined 1.3% in November compared to a year earlier, totaling €60.2 billion, highlighting softer fiscal inflows amid a slowing economy.
• ECB Signals: ECB Executive Board member Isabelle Schnabel said interest rate hikes in the euro area should not be expected in the near future, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged policy pause.
• Global Tech: Nvidia plans to start delivering H200 GPUs to China in February 2026 using existing inventories, a move seen as part of a broader easing in US export restrictions and received positively by equity investors.

Closing statement: The DAX remains supported by dovish ECB rhetoric and optimism around global tech flows, though weaker fiscal and trade dynamics could cap upside momentum in the near term.