Daily Analysis 31/03/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD is stabilizing just below the 1.3200 level after recent gains. Despite the rebound, the pair is struggling to build stronger upside momentum, indicating cautious market sentiment.
• Housing data: Data from Nationwide Building Society showed house prices rising by 0.9% m/m in March, far exceeding expectations. This marks the strongest monthly increase since late 2024 and signals resilience in the UK housing market.
• BoE signals: The Bank of England has hinted at a possible rate hike as early as April due to persistent inflation risks. While supportive for the Pound in theory, tighter monetary policy raises concerns about slowing economic growth.
• Fed's Williams: John Williams, President of the New York Fed, noted that US monetary policy is well-positioned but acknowledged mixed signals from the labor market. This uncertainty limits clear directional bias for the US Dollar.
• US data: Markets are eyeing key US indicators, including JOLTS Job Openings and consumer confidence data from the Conference Board. These releases could shape near-term USD direction and influence the pair.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is holding onto modest recovery gains, supported by strong UK data, but faces headwinds from hawkish BoE policy risks and uncertain US economic signals, keeping the outlook cautiously balanced.

• XAU/USD Price: The XAU/USD failed to hold above the $4,600 mark after reaching a one-and-a-half-week high during the Asian session. This pullback suggests fading bullish momentum despite recent strength.
• Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, including reluctance to engage in direct talks with the US and continued military deployments, keeps safe-haven demand for Gold supported, limiting deeper downside moves.
• Fed's Powell: Jerome Powell emphasized that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored despite geopolitical risks. He also highlighted that the Federal Reserve has flexibility to assess the economic impact before adjusting policy.
• Rate expectations: Markets are now pricing in more than a 50% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in 2026. This has pushed the US Dollar to fresh highs, creating headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold.
• CB commentary: A series of speeches from both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve could provide further direction. Any hawkish signals may strengthen the USD and pressure gold further.

Closing statement: Gold remains caught between geopolitical support and rising rate expectations, with USD strength limiting upside potential and keeping the near-term outlook cautiously bearish.

• Crude Oil Price: The WTI crude oil has snapped its four-day winning streak, trading near $99.70 per barrel. The pause comes after a sharp rally, suggesting some profit-taking while prices remain elevated.
• Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s plan to impose tolls and restrict access in the Strait of Hormuz marks a significant escalation. Given the strait’s critical role in global oil flows, any disruption raises serious supply concerns and supports higher prices.
• Supply fears: Reports of Iranian strikes on a Kuwaiti tanker and increased activity from Iran-backed Houthis highlight growing threats to shipping routes. The risk of broader disruptions across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea continues to underpin bullish sentiment.
• Fuel prices: According to GasBuddy data cited by Reuters, US gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in over three years. This reflects tightening supply conditions and geopolitical-driven price pressures.
• China demand: Stronger-than-expected PMI data from China, with manufacturing rising to 50.4, signals improving demand from the world’s largest oil importer. This adds a fundamental bullish factor alongside geopolitical risks.

Closing statement: Oil remains supported by escalating geopolitical tensions and improving demand signals, though short-term consolidation may persist after the recent rally.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX climbed 1.26% to above 22,700 points during the European session. The move suggests resilience in equities despite rising inflation and mixed economic data.
• German inflation: German CPI accelerated to 2.7% in March, with the HICP at 2.8% y/y, driven בעיקר by a sharp 7.6% surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. This marks the highest inflation level since early 2024 and reinforces stagflation concerns.
• Import prices: While monthly import prices rose modestly by 0.3%, they remain 2.3% lower on a yearly basis. This indicates that external price pressures are still relatively contained despite recent energy-driven spikes.
• Retail sales: Data from Destatis showed retail sales fell by 0.6% in February, missing expectations. The weak reading, combined with negative revisions, highlights fragile consumer demand even before the full impact of the geopolitical crisis.
• Price expectations: The European Commission survey points to a sharp increase in industrial selling price expectations, signaling that inflationary pressures may broaden in the coming months, while services remain stable.

Closing statement: The DAX is showing short-term strength, but rising inflation and weak consumption paint a challenging macro backdrop, increasing the risk of volatility ahead.